You also run into the issue of using generic

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CTR curve models which may not be representative of your site. We actually create a custom CTR curve using your Google Search Console (GSC) data in the GSC Overview report in Rank Tracker. custom ctr curve There are already a lot of pre-existing spreadsheets that help you make keyword forecasts from folks such as: Tom Capper Kevin Indig Adam Tanguay An easier way than going through this exercise would be to just use the Traffic Potential metric that we have in tools like Keywords Explorer. It takes into account all the keywords that you might rank for, not just one. traffic potential Traffic Potential shows the sum of organic traffic that the #1 ranking page for your target keyword receives from all the keywords that it ranks for.


In other words, if you build a better page than the one that already exists, you are likely to get as Special Data much traffic or more than the current best page. First-party vs third-party data? Most SEO forecasts use first-party data sources like Google Analytics or Google Search Console. If you want an accurate estimate for your website or page, this is absolutely the best data to use. If you need more granularity in your data or to predict seasonality, use one of these sources. Here’s a tutorial from JR Oakes that will help. The problem is that SEO isn’t a single-player game. What you need to know is how your site or page is likely to perform relative to the competition.



If your competitors are likely to outpace your SEO performance, that will influence your strategy and where you devote resources. And the only way to get data on your competitors is to use third-party sources like Ahrefs. You may wonder if you can reliably use third-party data for SEO forecasting. At Ahrefs, the way we calculate our average volume data does not see daily granularity or seasonality, but it is useful for finding patterns and forecasting trends. If you use monthly volume instead, this data does have the trend data included. We also re-calculate previous data and update our graphs to remove irregularities that would otherwise be caused by updates to our data or calculations. SEO forecasting with third-party data: use cases Graphs like the one I showed at the beginning of the article usually require some knowledge of coding and modeling libraries. That’s why many companies and agencies don’t do SEO forecasting.